The election is nearly upon us, it seems the market is expecting a Trump victory, we say that because of what we read from strategists. The risk to the market is if Harris wins, taxes will go up due to the Trump tax cuts expiring after 2025.
Read BlogThe Employment Report was stronger than expected with 254,000 new jobs in September. As we have discussed, we are very suspicious of this report as it is a survey, so not hard numbers, and we are very close to the election.
Read BlogMarket is discounting a “soft landing” which we believe to mean no negative GDP quarters and earnings continuing to grow.
Read BlogThe Federal Reserve did what was necessary, they have teased the market extensively and they needed to deliver, they did!
Read BlogThe Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by .25% on Wednesday, but the market is projecting it is a 50%/50% probability of .25% or .50%.
Read BlogThere are two very good economic indicators that we like that were released last week, the Beige Book and ISM Purchasing Managers Index, that are worth discussing...
Read BlogAs we discussed, we are expecting a rough month of September for the market, see last week’s market in a minute. The last 4 Septembers were down on average by - 7%.
Read BlogNVDA: which reports on Wednesday, has currently about 10% volatility up or down expected after their earnings report, so about .70% plus or minus for the S&P 500.
Read BlogPowell’s Economic Speech on Friday: Annually, there is a symposium in Jackson Hole where economists and central bankers meet to discuss economic issues and policy options.
Read BlogValuation- the S&P 500 on 2024 earnings is 22x and 2025 is 19x. We had been expecting a -10% pullback this quarter and we got it, now with about a 4.3% bounce off the bottom on August 5th.
Read Blog
