Market In A Minute Blog

PVG Market In A Minute-February 11, 2025

Inflation is generally driven by money growth outstripping the economies’ capacity to produce additional goods and services, or supply shocks which tend to be self-correcting.

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PVG Market In A Minute-February 4, 2025

The two main issues we are concerned about as we have discussed repeatedly are the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, which currently is contained at around 4.5%.

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PVG Market In A Minute-January 7, 2025

The big news this week is a company in China called DeepSeek, as their A.I. model is apparently much better, cheaper, and requires less energy. It also has an open architecture (not proprietary—cheap!).

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PVG Market In A Minute-January 22, 2025

Clearly, investor emotion is a real thing that impacts the stock market and maybe even more importantly right now, the bond market.

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PVG Market In A Minute-January 14, 2025

Inflation/bond yields and earnings reports are the near-term focus of the market! Since September, the S&P rose by about 10% while bonds (7-10 Treasuries) fell by about 9%.

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PVG Market In A Minute-January 07, 2025

First, reviewing 2024, the economy was driven significantly by fiscal spending. Monetary policy was restrictive on the surface with an inverted yield curve for part of the year and then later a flattish yield curve with a little higher yield on the longer dated Treasuries than the short-term.

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PVG Market In A Minute-December 24, 2024

The Federal Reserve did what we expected, they cut rates by .25%, and the S&P 500 fell by close to -3%. In last week’s update, we mentioned this would be analogous to a company guiding down earnings and the stock declining.

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PVG Market In A Minute-December 17, 2024

Since 1950, there have been eight times that the S&P 500 gained 20% or more two years in a row, and in six years the third year saw positive gains with an average return of 12%.

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PVG Market In A Minute-December 10, 2024

The November CPI reported on Wednesday and is expected to be up 0.3% versus October, this is month over month (3.6% annualized). The October report on a year over year basis was up 2.6%

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PVG Market In A Minute-December 3, 2024

The big news the market will focus on this week is the Employment Report on Friday with an estimated 200,000 new jobs and the Unemployment Rate ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

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