Markets showed moderate gains last week, with the S&P 500 up 1.88% and the NASDAQ climbing 2.01%. However, year-to-date performance remains mixed, with small-cap stocks like the Russell 2000 still down significantly. A key concern is the downward revision in S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2025, dropping from 270 to 264—a 2% decline. Despite this, sectors like technology remain resilient, particularly when factoring in major players like Meta, Google, and Amazon. Healthcare saw pressure due to UnitedHealth, which PVG views as a potential buy opportunity. Meanwhile, energy underperformed but may offer future value given geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices.

From a macroeconomic view, GDPNow forecasts U.S. economic growth at 4.6% for Q2, far above the consensus estimate of 1%, suggesting stronger-than-expected momentum. Yet, risks remain. Federal budget challenges, geopolitical flashpoints in Iran and Russia, and growing concern about bond market instability (highlighted by Jamie Dimon’s warning) could all affect future performance. Technically, the market has rebounded above the 200-day moving average, but without sector rotation—particularly beyond tech—this rally may stall. PVG’s strategies remain focused on tactical protection, and sectors like energy, banks, biotech, and consumer staples are being closely watched for potential opportunities.

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