PVG Market In A Minute-July 1, 2025
Patrick Adams, CFA
July 1, 2025
The stock market showed strong momentum in June with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all posting gains of over 3% for the week, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations for pro-growth policy developments. The effectiveness of U.S. military strength has calmed concerns around Russia and China, while optimism surrounds the July 9 tariff deadline and the anticipated passage of the Federal Budget Bill. The bond market is also signaling confidence, with falling yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will move toward a rate cut later this year as inflation moderates. Despite strong recent performance, PVG advises investors to take profits ahead of earnings reports and remain cautious entering the historically volatile August–October period.
Looking forward, the outlook hinges on second-quarter earnings results and potential Fed actions. While a July rate cut is unlikely, a September cut is anticipated. Valuations remain stretched with the market trading at a 22x P/E ratio, though individual stocks still present selective opportunities. The Fed Model shows stocks are fully valued unless Treasury yields decline. In sector performance, Communication Services and Industrials led the way, while Energy lagged. Notably, emerging healthcare strategies and growth-focused portfolios have delivered standout returns. Additionally, VERU's promising clinical data in the lean muscle mass drug space signals strong upside potential, especially with a pivotal FDA meeting on the horizon and potential partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms in play.