As of mid-July 2025, the market landscape is navigating several key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Investor concern is rising around potential 100% tariffs proposed by Donald Trump on Russian oil buyers if a ceasefire isn’t reached by September 1st. This could significantly impact oil prices, which historically peak in late summer. Such a spike would likely have a negative effect on equities. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates as early as September, with projections of up to six cuts through 2026 to realign with inflation trends. The economy has shown signs of softening, particularly in Final Sales during Q1, but modest improvement is expected moving forward. Energy stock positioning is under review ahead of potential oil volatility, while the possible departure of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is seen as a potential market opportunity if it prompts a temporary selloff.

From a sector standpoint, defensive names and value plays are regaining interest, especially in healthcare, where lagging valuations may present upside, such as Eli Lilly with its promising obesity treatment pipeline. In contrast, mega-cap tech—particularly NVIDIA, now the world’s most valuable company—is facing headwinds from valuation pressure and growing competition. Looking forward, a sector rotation out of AI-focused names into alternative equity plays is anticipated in 2026. PVG continues to advocate for cyclical growth exposure, particularly semiconductors, if a broader market dip occurs in late summer. Their strategies remain diversified, with tactical and specialty strategies like Emerging Healthcare showing robust multi-year performance, even as broader equity returns are expected to reach approximately 10% for the S&P 500 in 2025.

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