First, reviewing 2024, the economy was driven significantly by fiscal spending. Monetary policy was restrictive on the surface with an inverted yield curve for part of the year and then later a flattish yield curve with a little higher yield on the longer dated Treasuries than the short-term.
Read BlogThe Federal Reserve did what we expected, they cut rates by .25%, and the S&P 500 fell by close to -3%. In last week’s update, we mentioned this would be analogous to a company guiding down earnings and the stock declining.
Read BlogSince 1950, there have been eight times that the S&P 500 gained 20% or more two years in a row, and in six years the third year saw positive gains with an average return of 12%.
Read BlogThe November CPI reported on Wednesday and is expected to be up 0.3% versus October, this is month over month (3.6% annualized). The October report on a year over year basis was up 2.6%
Read BlogThe big news the market will focus on this week is the Employment Report on Friday with an estimated 200,000 new jobs and the Unemployment Rate ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Read BlogWe feel strongly that a massive rotation or broadening of the markets is in process. We have been expecting a big rotation down into midcap and in particular small cap stocks.
Read BlogNVDA reports earnings on Wednesday, now the largest company in the world by market capitalization slightly higher than AAPL. There is visibility into 2025 that AI infrastructure will continue to be strong.
Read BlogThe election results could not have been any more positive for the markets with very likely the house going to the Republicans as well, with lower taxes, lower regulations, lower government spending, lower crime, secure boarders, bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., and a very tough foreign policy.
Read BlogThe election concluding is a positive for the stock market, generally there is modest rally with the conclusion, however, the market being up so much more than the historical averages has us nervous about the next few months.
Read BlogThe election being resolved is generally good news, but it could end up being a net negative, we say this because the market seems to already anticipate good news.
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