Last week, China devalued the Yuan by 3%, and the U.S. stock market responded poorly but then bounced back. We believe that is just the start. Exports from China declined by -8% in July. Keep in mind the vast majority of China’s economy is from exports. An -8% decline has got to have really shaken…
Read BlogThe PVG Loss Averse Equity Income strategy historically has performed very well over a full market cycle. A full market cycle is defined as a peak in the market, followed by a bear market to the next market peak. It can also be defined as a trough to the next trough. The importance of analyzing…
Read BlogOver a full cycle we have historically performed best on a relative basis during falling or bear markets, performing strongly on an absolute basis through most of the bull market, but the later stages of the bull market we have generally underperformed. The underperformance or bond like returns during the later stages of the bull…
Read BlogLast week, we highlighted Trinseo (TSE) before they reported earnings, thinking the stock was going to pop on the earnings as there was a large short position and the shorts had the wrong story. The stock was up in 4 days by about 22%. Nice call by our new associate Richard Prati. You can see…
Read BlogThis Friday we will get the Employment report, which is expected to be above 200,000 jobs created and for the Unemployment Rate to hold steady at 5.3%. You can see from the chart below the Unemployment Rate is at a relatively low level and does not justify the Fed remaining with a 0%-.25% Fed Funds…
Read BlogThe market internals continue to worsen, the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs last week was 20 and stocks hitting 52-week lows was 546. Keep in mind there are only 3,698 stocks in the Wilshire 5,000. We thought it was particularly concerning on Friday when Amazon.com reported a good quarter, the stock advanced significantly, but…
Read BlogThe market breadth has been very poor lately. Friday as an example when the market was up, the advancing issues were about 1,000 stocks up and 2,000 declining. So for every stock up there are two stocks down, yet the market is up. How does that happen? It happens by getting a small number of…
Read BlogSince the Federal Reserve ended their QE policy back in October, stocks have flattened out and bond yields have risen. Valuations in the stock market are high. Maybe not as elevated as the highest valuations in 2000, but none the less they are very expensive, particularly some sectors like healthcare and consumer stocks. Bond yields…
Read BlogThe stock market looks to have stablized as there appears to be a solution not to kill off Greece for now. However, Greece will not survive long term as a Euro member. China imposed severe penalties on short selling, so their market stablized. If you look at the charts below you can see the S&P…
Read BlogAs we mentioned last week, we thought “hunkering down” made a lot of sense. Greece did default as we have been expecting. We don’t see how a deal is made as the amount of debt is too large and the austerity needed is too crippling. With 61% of the referendum voting No to the austerity,…
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