What has been frustrating the bears is the money supply, measured by M2 is down -5.4%, which has historically a reliable indicator for the stock market. A -5.4% decline in M2 is significant and generally should have had a major impact.
Read BlogAfter the NVDA report the stock continues to plow higher but the market is mixed. We think NVDA is having a blow off to the upside or a parabolic move.
Read BlogIn our opinion, this is the most difficult part of a market cycle, compounded by having a car full of Federal Reserve children screaming to the world “Are we there yet?
Read BlogThe market corrected about -6% and has bounced back to close to the old highs. It is now back to a more overbought condition than it was before, as the market’s momentum has slowed.
Read BlogWe believe the question is how long this market cycle will last, which depends on the economy and making the earnings expectations for this year and next.
Read BlogThe market found its footing in this mini-downturn around the 100-day moving average. We got less defensive in our tactical strategies, a distinction we are making, not more aggressive.
Read BlogFrom the recent market high, the S&P 500 is down about -5.4% in about 3 weeks, the Nasdaq down -7.1%, and the small cap index the Russell 2000 down about -8.5%.
Read BlogOil prices are an issue for the stock market as it will likely push inflation higher. We would expect the Israelis to respond against Iran’s oil fields, nuclear sites, or military installations.
Read BlogPCE was reported on Friday, we generally do not bother talking about old data, but we think it is important to review as the inflation data is just not continuing to decline.
Read BlogNVDA has about 95% of the market for specialized AI chips and has gross margins of 76%, similar to a software company. NVDA believes the replacement market for GPUs for CPUs is a $1 trillion revenue opportunity.
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