The market reacted positively last week to the Federal Reserve mapping out, as much as possible, the trajectory of rate increases moving up from 0-.25% to just under 3% by the end of 2017. There will likely be at least one rate increase this year. 2017 seems to be an eternity in stock market years….
Read BlogThe Federal Reserve meets this week and plans a press conference on Wednesday. Other than this week, the Fed will meet in July, September, October and December. It is widely expected the Fed will raise rates in September. Generally, when the Fed raises rates it is not once or twice but numerous times. Our best…
Read BlogLast week, the bond market had a very tough week, along with other interest rate sensitive securities. As an example, the widely watched 10 Year Treasury Note yield increased .30% to 2.4%. Additionally, other bond markets around the world have also been weak lately, such as the 10 Year German Bund which has increased from…
Read BlogSome of the issues that we hear a lot of chatter about from investors and in the media, have been the seasonal weakness of the equity market in June, the weakness in the transportation index, the weakness of recent economic data, and investors gravitating to index funds. The Dow has been in a bull market…
Read BlogThe sentiment feels like the market is starting to think more about normalizing prices. The 0.3% CPI reported last week was an acceleration from the prior month of 0.2% and the trailing 12 months of 1.8%. There was a big jump in medical cost this month. The Federal Reserve has wanted a 2% inflation rate….
Read BlogLast week, the market pierced above the resistance that has been tested repeatedly for the S&P 500 of 2120. What happens from here is the market should move higher based on this near term momentum. However, it is a little like watching a 350 pound lineman run the 40 yard dash. It is just not…
Read BlogApril was a good month for the PVG Loss Averse Equity Income strategy, up about 1%. We continue to have a very defensive stance toward the markets, especially the bond market on a global basis. It is estimated that 25% of the sovereign debt in Europe has a negative yield. Frankly, this just does not…
Read BlogDuring the last couple of weeks, we have seen a significant spike up in bond yields globally. The longer end of the U.S. Treasury Bond (TLT) market is down about 12% in price from its high in January, or the yields have gone up about 0.40%. The 1-Year chart below shows the recent price trend…
Read BlogLast week, the first quarter GDP was reported, and as we expected, it came in much below expectations, up only .2%, with the consensus at 1%. We really like the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s website and analysis. Their model seems very accurate. They were dead on with their first quarter GDP forecast. You can…
Read BlogLast week, the very big news was GE announcing they are going to monetize their financial/real estate business, repatriate a significant amount of money back to the U.S., and implement a $50 billion share repurchase program. This will allow GE to focus on higher margin businesses that have higher valuations in the market. Fifty billion…
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