Market In A Minute Blog

PVG Market In A Minute - January 23, 2024

High Conviction Valuation Problem: The projected 12-month P/E on the S&P 500 is 19.9, above 20 we would consider this risky and bubble valuations.

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PVG Market In A Minute - January 16, 2024

The market is valued at 19.7x the 2024 earnings estimate of $243, which is at the outer bounds of the last 10 years when interest rates were much lower (adjusted for the negative impact of Covid on depressing earnings, which inflated the P/E).

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PVG Market In A Minute - January 9, 2024

The Big Market Issue is Changing from CPI to EPS: We get CPI on Thursday, and it is expected to be up 3.2% year over year. Goods inflation has come down while services has remained elevated due to higher labor cost.

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PVG Market In A Minute - January 3, 2024

We are looking for an opportunity to pick off certain securities and sectors on a dip. For now, we believe it is prudent to be cautious. The set up currently has too much risk to be aggressive.

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PVG Market In A Minute - December 19, 2023

As everybody has already heard, the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot changed a great deal, to now expecting .75% in cuts in 2024. The market or the Federal Funds futures are now expecting 1.5% in cuts in 2024.

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PVG Market In A Minute - December 12, 2023

The bull case for the market is the economy on a nominal basis will grow at roughly 5%, with 2% coming from real GDP growth and 3% coming from inflation, allowing earnings to grow at over 10% for the next two years.

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PVG Market In A Minute - December 5, 2023

The rotation that we discussed last week of the technology sector slowing or declining and money moving into quality Blue Chip and smaller companies, rather than just the mega-cap technology stocks, appears to have started.

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PVG Market In A Minute - November 28, 2023

The market is experiencing a seasonal rally, which we believe there still is some upside potential. The market is convinced the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates, we would agree.

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PVG Market In A Minute - November 21, 2023

We spoke to a couple of trading desks on Monday, and the tone was very positive. The smaller institutional investors now have a more positive view of the markets and are buying the smaller beaten-up stocks.

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PVG Market In A Minute - November 14, 2023

The inflation data cooling is key for the bond market, and therefore, the stock market. Our main concern has been centered around energy costs (also money printing), which has been moderating.

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