What is an advisor to do with all major asset classes in an overvalued condition? We believe the use of tactical management or portfolios that protect against the downside are very timely. Generally, P/E multiples (price to earnings) are a good measure of risk for stocks, and we think it works particularly well for stock…
Read BlogWe have two tranches of our portfolio, the growth and income tranche and the income tranche. Together the two generate around a 4.5% dividend yield on the portfolio. We would like to focus on the income tranche of the portfolio in this update. We currently have about 33% in the growth and income tranche and…
Read BlogThe stock market is now into the sixth year of a cyclical bull market that started March of 2009, rarely do bull markets last more than five years. Additionally, one of the main catalysts for the market has been the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, which if all goes as plan will end in 2014. Our…
Read BlogWhen interest rates, rise bond prices fall. From May 2013 through December 2013 interest rates rose from 1.6% to about 3.0% on the 10 year Treasury. During this period bond prices fell around 20%. The U.S. Economy is growing around 2%, generally speaking, and inflation appears to be normalizing around 2%, getting us nominal GDP…
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We are up in a down market (PVG Tactical Total Return +0.59%; S&P 500 -0.24%*), as the market fell in January and the first part of February we protected the portfolio with inverse ETFs and then took the hedges off and allowed the portfolio to rally when the market bounced. We have recently started to…
Read BlogWe have put together a comprehensive white paper on asset allocation and specifically how to implement tactical asset allocation. We believe you will find this very helpful. Please take advantage of this research. PVG Tactical Asset Allocation Guide
Read BlogWe have discussed how to use our Loss Averse Equity Income in an asset allocation in the past. We thought we would do it again as we are still getting questions as to why we did not perform like the equity markets in 2013, and how to best use the strategy in a portfolio. We…
Read BlogPlease find enclosed a presentation which covers both fundamental and technical analysis of the markets, and the concerns we have for 2014. As a summary, we believe both the equity and fixed income markets have valuation issues, which investors need to be aware of if they are investing. We believe investor expectations are very lofty,…
Read BlogWe have made only minor changes in the portfolio during November, reducing our hedge by approximately 4% and our cash moved up by about 5%. Most of our technical and fundamental indicators are very cautious regarding the equity and fixed income markets. We believe the markets have been driven primarily by very aggressive Federal Reserve…
Read BlogOur Equity Income Strategy had a good month in October, up 1.29%. The sentiment has clearly gotten very bullish lately as bulls out number bears 3 to 1. This type of excessive bullishness is associated with market tops. Our three year view of the market is for a flattening of returns, with both bonds and…
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