PVG Market In A Minute-August 6, 2024
As we have been saying for a while now, we expected the economy to weaken significantly during the second half of 2024. That appears to be exactly what is happening.
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As we have been saying for a while now, we expected the economy to weaken significantly during the second half of 2024. That appears to be exactly what is happening.
Read BlogEquity markets are in an early stage of broadening, small cap stocks are very undervalued, but generally perform best in a new economic cycle, if a soft-landing these stocks will continue to go, if a recession, then the sustainable move is in 2025.
Read BlogWe believe the stage is becoming set for a major shift in the markets to last multiple years, as money is moved out of the mega cap stocks to other areas of the market.
Read BlogValuations for the S&P 500 are very high 23x versus 24x forward in 2000, Extreme reading on the number of stocks beating the S&P 500 at only 25%.
Read BlogWe think without a significant rotation, the market will bust! We are likely going to get a rotation, as we believe we are at a record low in terms of the percentage of stocks that are outperforming the S&P 500 over a calendar year.
Read BlogWe have discussed repeatedly the very narrow market, the parabolic move of some of the market, and don’t think we need to rehash it in detail. If you look at the Equal Weight S&P 500 it is up just 3.2%, while the S&P 500 is up 14.5%
Read BlogTechnology and related is over 40% of the S&P 500. Just three stocks are 21% of the index, NVDA, MSFT and AAPL. The top six stocks in the S&P 500 are all technology and are 31.6% of the S&P 500.
Read BlogThe market, as everyone knows, has been driven by fewer and fewer stocks to the point that the very high concentrated of technology and technology related is about 40% of the S&P 500.
Read BlogThe Fed releases their Dot Plots, and we expect to see some major shifts in their expectations from their March meeting. The shifts are negative.
Read BlogWhat has been frustrating the bears is the money supply, measured by M2 is down -5.4%, which has historically a reliable indicator for the stock market. A -5.4% decline in M2 is significant and generally should have had a major impact.
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